Figure 2 shows estimated 2012 emissions for the San Diego region by category.įigure 2 San Diego regional greenhouse gas emissions 2012. For the overall inventory in any year, we estimate emissions from each category separately and then add them up to get an overall emission value for that year. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arise from 14 categories in our region. Given the potential for confusion around projected GHG emissions levels, it is important to know what lies beneath the projection.ĭependence of GHG Emissions Projections on State Forecasts The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines a “business-as-usual” baseline case as the level of emissions that would result if future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies take place. These projections may be called a “business-as-usual” (BAU), baseline or a base case projection. In this case, not only the effects of the existing 33% RPS but also the potential effects of the Governor’s Executive Order B-30-15 ( ) with the goal of reaching 50% RPS would be included. Using the example above, such a projection would include the effects of the RPS in any future year.Ĭ) Based on actual emissions to date and then projected to include the future effects of energy and GHG-related implemented and planned. Another example would be if a projection that starts in 2012 in California but does not include the future effects of the Renewables Portfolio Standard, RPS ( ).ī) Based on actual emissions to date and projected to include the future effects of the policies in place in the starting year. This is the case in the projection shown in Figure 1, which starts in 2008. In this case, the future effects of existing policy affecting energy or greenhouse gases are not considered. Projections can be calculated in at least three different ways:Ī) Based on actual emissions to date and projected using historical trend analysis and/or economic and demographic forecasts. There are several approaches to projecting emissions, which can lead to confusion regarding terminology and meaning of projections. The start year of the projection is the one with actual data and is usually called the baseline year. According to this projection, we would have needed to avoid about 14 million metric tons CO2e in 2020 to achieve the 1990 level.įigure 1 San Diego region’s greenhouse gas emissions trends and 2008 BAU projection Figure 1 shows the regional GHG emissions and a projection made in 2008 based on economic and demographic forecasts of the region (see San Diego County Greenhouse Gas Inventory September 2008 at ).
To assess whether the policies we are enacting and implementing today can hope to achieve this target, we need a projection that tells us where we would be without these policies. For example, if we apply California’s AB32 target to the San Diego region, we would have to achieve the 1990 GHG emissions level (approximately 29 million metric tons CO2e) in 2020. Keen for some feedback on whether this is enough information and the right kind of format.Projecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important because it helps us to assess how much the energy and GHG policies in place help to achieve targets set by law. a project to build a new school will implement a unique design whereas a factory to produce washing machines will produce the same products day in day out. In a project the deliverables are produced once, whereas deliverables are repeatedly produced during business as usual. Projects are about change, so may be in part procedural (such as change control procedure) but fundamentally involve the creation of new operating practices. Each project is different in implementation details so needs a bespoke approach to implementation.ĭuring business as usual operations the working practises are procedural in order to achieve continuity, the aim being to continuously improve the work.
a roll out of an IT system would have to be completed by a particular target date whereas operations of that system would be ongoing.įor a project the plans and specifications that are put in place are bespoke and unique. For example, a project would produce a new IT system and roll it out in the business whereas business as usual would be operating that IT system day in day out.Ī project produces the product in a finite, set time period whereas in business as usual the products are repeatedly produced for an indefinite amount of time.
A project introduces a new product or a change in product whereas business as usual seeks to reproduce the same item.
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